Ethan Mollick· @emollick · X·· 3 小时前
事实摘要
GPT-4 能以 50% 的成功率完成 4 分钟的独立工作。 当前的模型能完成数周的工作，而 2026 年 1 月是智能体工作真正开始的一个合理分界点。 在此之前，大规模的生产力影响主要局限于编程领域。
正文 · 原文
GPT-4 could do 4 minutes of independent work with a 50% chance of success.
Current models can do multiple weeks of work, and January 2026 is a reasonable cut-off for the moment agentic work started.
Large productivity impacts before that would mostly be confined to coding.
Steve was very early on this. But he’s exactly right—chatbot era was never going to be a huge productivity boost. Analyses should put the line at January 2026; agentic AI is where productivity gains are.在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Ethan Mollick · x.com